Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25d3b104be23dd6a1308de5d1616ece46db952cf8712d2781a8684eaa6939367
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 5,272$3,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…c348backed Yes | 28c | 1,534$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 997.44$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.19 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 30c | 957.14$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.95 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 25c | 700$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 680.42$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.54 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 67c | 443.99$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 71c | 413.21$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e5…e5cebacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 71c | 252.73$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe724…1938backed Yes | 34c | 235.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…b2ccbacked Yes | 33c | 183.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked Yes | 32c | 156.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Yes | 26c | 154.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 11c | 153.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 34c | 134.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 134.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 27c | 125$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…a479backed Yes | 31c | 103$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 68c | 100.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Yes | 35c | 95.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 33c | 84.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Yes | 31c | 62.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c637backed No | 69c | 62.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 65c | 57.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…b02ebacked Yes | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed No | 69c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5990…6095backed Yes | 33c | 41.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…aa94backed Yes | 35c | 37.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa137…564bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…767cbacked Yes | 35c | 28.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7a…8a7fbacked No | 66c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…865abacked No | 67c | 19.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…fbe7backed No | 67c | 17.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will Hertha BSC vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.