Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8df8efb1d9ae12aa6dcc2ef60b0bf58bc7a2fc3a1a7246e9d5631598706133d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 7,507$5,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,482.15 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Yes | 28c | 2,916$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 64c | 2,554$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.26 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed5…753dbacked Yes | 37c | 2,376$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 39c | 1,784$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.8 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…6743backed Yes | 37c | 1,400$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 65c | 1,359$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.06 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…247dbacked No | 61c | 999.99$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed No | 61c | 800$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…6920backed Yes | 35c | 650$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 37c | 510.68$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.55 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 71c | 360$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 37c | 351.78$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.16 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…8e69backed Yes | 19c | 282.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 61c | 282$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed Yes | 38c | 226.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 72c | 221.93$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 34c | 174.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 37c | 158.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1758…5d73backed Yes | 34c | 141.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 61c | 119.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Yes | 40c | 102.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 37c | 95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 62c | 93.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59a4…3fd8backed Yes | 17c | 71.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 38c | 58.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…ecebbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed No | 63c | 45.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 67c | 40.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed No | 63c | 38.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…b02ebacked Yes | 39c | 36.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1384…12acbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 60c | 31.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x530d…9b59backed Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 76c | 20.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed No | 63c | 20.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…a479backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-01-17?No won
- Will Hertha BSC vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.