MLB · resolved market
NRFI: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ff13adb5fb0348531f91fa7bf4f182c827bd128ce89148ec62209f7c790db7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 6c | 1,097$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 46c | 862.11$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.54 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Yes | 54c | 687.77$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 47c | 186.94$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.08 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Yes | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked No | 51c | 139$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 49c | 133.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1379…e6b8backed No | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Yes | 52c | 87.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Yes | 53c | 78.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…a421backed No | 61c | 64.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ab…8c2ebacked Yes | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…7812backed Yes | 54c | 22.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padresthis page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.