MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ff553c302690e0bea3baa953c48f3aed39afad2f213687a48c38596d284ce6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Detroit Tigers | 41c | 7,861$3,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,261.46 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 2,772$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.65 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 2,393$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.86 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 725.26$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.82 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 641.77$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.91 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 535.51$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.22 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…3fd9backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 329.17$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 318.31$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.37 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 315.12$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.96 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 275.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.62 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 248.29$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 203.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.51 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Minnesota Twins | 46c | 202.23$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers | 49c | 197.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Detroit Tigers | 40c | 194.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 192.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Minnesota Twins | 30c | 171.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.39 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 160.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 149.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…8ed1backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 144.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.66 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 144.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 123.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 119.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 112.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Minnesota Twins | 24c | 91.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 90.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 46c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 63.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…46e4backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 57.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 54.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Detroit Tigers | 70c | 42.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 42.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 38.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…5749backed Detroit Tigers | 48c | 32.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 28.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…87eabacked Detroit Tigers | 45c | 25.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 21.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…0f44backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e6…454ebacked Detroit Tigers | 63c | 16.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.