Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20236ad22833f142a75e575f4c994ee6e97f56a33bc1bb3608196a1457ee94cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8431…6291backed Yes | 79c | 604.03$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.76 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 506$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 484$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 6c | 365.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 19c | 336.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 32c | 331.03$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.2 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 72c | 255.62$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 230.51$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 7c | 183.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 73c | 180.11$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.05 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 179.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cd…349abacked No | 13c | 153.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 151.78$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.91 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 116.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 105.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 69c | 100.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 21c | 94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 85.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 78.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 76c | 73.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 62.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 22c | 59.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 30c | 49.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 44.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 33c | 44.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 78c | 43.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 27c | 41.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…6297backed Yes | 45c | 39.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 67c | 28.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 53c | 26.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 23.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 79c | 23.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 63c | 22.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 78c | 17.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 79c | 13.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.