Tennis · resolved market
ITF Laval: Liam Draxl vs Nicolas Arseneault
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x204df6bae7d9c01355108d321cea1864f5ef7c9569e69b607fd6b12e55df715e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liam Draxlof Liam Draxl, Nicolas Arseneault
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Nicolas Arseneault | 7c | 895.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 6,419 | 46.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nicolas Arseneault | 6c | 762.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 6,685 | 36.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L | -96.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Nicolas Arseneault | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 433 | 34.9%151 W · 282 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…09cebacked Nicolas Arseneault | 19c | 509.56$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nicolas Arseneault | 8c | 461.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Nicolas Arseneault | 5c | 399.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Nicolas Arseneault | 11c | 311$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Nicolas Arseneault | 15c | 240.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Nicolas Arseneault | 17c | 236.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Nicolas Arseneault | 14c | 143.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,011 | 41.4%419 W · 592 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Nicolas Arseneault | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 557 | 53.7%299 W · 258 L | +19.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Liam Draxl | 80c | 52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 4,584 | 48.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L | +35.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF Laval: Liam Draxl vs Nicolas Arseneaultthis page
- Draxl vs. Arseneault: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Draxl vs. Arseneault: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.