Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x207c770f85112208c501707d5c6ab74a35586883074665e175820b265c6d7a34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8993…9088backed Yes | 6c | 255.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 175.11$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 1,804 | 55.9%1,009 W · 795 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 141.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 126.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked No | 62c | 115$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 134 | 38.8%52 W · 82 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 23c | 100.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 466 | 47.4%221 W · 245 L | +46.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 30c | 96.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 696 | 58.5%407 W · 289 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 41c | 95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 88.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 45c | 84.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…6788backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 26c | 65.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 53.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 42.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 40.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 1,146 | 57.1%654 W · 492 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 544 | 48.3%263 W · 281 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 41c | 33.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -38.0wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 56c | 29.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 215 | 46.5%100 W · 115 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 21.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,611 | 61.8%995 W · 616 L | +17.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 492 | 47.8%235 W · 257 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 65c | 17.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 13?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.