Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcd703bccd67026902a41a4914c692cf984bd7b11522d9baad96216c0a4c763a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 44c | 366.64$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.43 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 13c | 193.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 53c | 190.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 161.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 138.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 55c | 134.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 126.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 40c | 106.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 64c | 83.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…64d0backed Yes | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 65.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 63.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 43c | 56.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 47c | 44.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9771…605ebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 53c | 27.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…724cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd247…792abacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 13?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.