Mls · resolved market
Will FC Dallas win on 2025-10-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x207e194321919e771ae90d0637c1c723a7ddaf045e2392628863f1790379c405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 38c | 3,050$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 62c | 2,786$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.72 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 21c | 1,457$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.63 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…5628backed Yes | 38c | 1,431$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 956$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.59 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd2…fec8backed Yes | 38c | 699.93$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 62c | 577.79$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 79c | 416.82$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked No | 63c | 214.65$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 36c | 159.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 11c | 131$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 79c | 121.56$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 39c | 76.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…2276backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 58c | 38.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…a9e5backed Yes | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bce…14fabacked Yes | 46c | 22.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Dallas win on 2025-10-11?this page
- Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?No won
- Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2025-10-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.