Mls · resolved market
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2025-10-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb61302ede8fac9c62920edab6394df7d9f551e2d60c4f789485adeaa4cc71f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 49c | 32,736$16,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,177.68 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 46c | 30,000$13,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,200 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 59c | 8,938$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,637.86 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 42c | 5,099$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150.2 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 42c | 3,216$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.85 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 9c | 1,380$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Yes | 40c | 1,296$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 38c | 800$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.29 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 751$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.82 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 60c | 386$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 60c | 344.26$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.24 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed No | 41c | 245.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…6cd8backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 48c | 122$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 61c | 92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 37c | 74.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 61c | 55.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 61c | 54.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1b…82fdbacked No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 38c | 44.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 34c | 39.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Yes | 42c | 35.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 47c | 27.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Yes | 65c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2025-10-11?this page
- Will FC Dallas win on 2025-10-11?No won
- Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.