South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x207f4e9f3a2f9f006457d47c9eeb7bb25347e1e46f68dc8cfca77e072e127e80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed No | 30c | 1,649$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.57 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a9…f96dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,186$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 68cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked No | 34c | 1,122$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.22 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 5c | 965.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 12c | 869.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 29c | 861.03$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.87 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…d1e5backed Yes | 71c | 750.71$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 70c | 631.35$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.52 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed No | 15c | 630.19$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.92 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 28c | 605.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.68 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 28c | 593.91$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.37 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked No | 27c | 557.56$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.62 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 72c | 499.97$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 73c | 404.3$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 30c | 345.14$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d5…1a5bbacked No | 17c | 287.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 63c | 278$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Yes | 74c | 266.05$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 12c | 215.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc7…43e5backed No | 16c | 210.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 175 | 60.6%106 W · 69 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 30c | 181.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 65c | 180$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…100fbacked No | 29c | 167.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…2f12backed Yes | 73c | 148.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 72c | 141.86$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Yes | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Yes | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Yes | 71c | 121.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 71c | 114.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 165 | 34.5%57 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 27c | 113.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 213 | 45.1%96 W · 117 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Yes | 71c | 98.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed No | 18c | 95.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 71c | 94.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 74c | 79.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes | 74c | 66.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…25c2backed Yes | 73c | 62.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…189abacked Yes | 74c | 60.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 73c | 59.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…b2a6backed Yes | 73c | 53.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ad…4eebbacked Yes | 74c | 48.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 107 | 67.3%72 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 73c | 46.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…82debacked Yes | 73c | 41.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 73c | 40.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Yes | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 28c | 39.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 290 | 53.8%156 W · 134 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…f0d9backed Yes | 71c | 34.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…49d4backed Yes | 74c | 28.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 76c | 28.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…8859backed Yes | 72c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 63c | 24.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 72c | 24.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Yes | 70c | 22.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 71c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda25…abafbacked Yes | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 69c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 70c | 18.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…21b8backed Yes | 71c | 17.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…ad64backed Yes | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-14?this page
- Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-04-14?No won
- Will São Paulo FC vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.