CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20865ae0a929c0a975afba490e76c10efce73fec85225abcd802c3c61113fbf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TDKof TDK, Atreides
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked Atreides | 34c | 3,908$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.84 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed TDK | 61c | 1,231$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.49 | 454 | 65.9%299 W · 155 L | +20.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Atreides | 21c | 1,004$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.03 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked TDK | 78c | 997.43$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.17 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked TDK | 71c | 697$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.95 | 190 | 30.5%58 W · 132 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…bf89backed Atreides | 36c | 548.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Atreides | 23c | 510.08$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.62 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Atreides | 22c | 452.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Atreides | 18c | 378.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked TDK | 60c | 353.35$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.86 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed TDK | 79c | 232.57$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked TDK | 69c | 216.41$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed TDK | 56c | 179.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Atreides | 17c | 166.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Atreides | 23c | 132.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked TDK | 79c | 118.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 277 | 53.8%149 W · 128 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…cf4cbacked TDK | 64c | 115.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…117ebacked TDK | 67c | 113.16$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…fd36backed TDK | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 401 | 55.1%221 W · 180 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9558…9579backed Atreides | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked Atreides | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 31.1%109 W · 242 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed TDK | 79c | 69.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…51b8backed TDK | 71c | 59.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…1e43backed TDK | 68c | 58.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Atreides | 25c | 56.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed TDK | 68c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…6197backed TDK | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked TDK | 75c | 47.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 305 | 45.9%140 W · 165 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed Atreides | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed TDK | 78c | 35.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 231 | 58.4%135 W · 96 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed TDK | 79c | 35.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed TDK | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed TDK | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed TDK | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 200 | 67%134 W · 66 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a51…4ef6backed TDK | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…e878backed TDK | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides - Map 2 WinnerTDK won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Atreides (+1.5)Atreides won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.