Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-03-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20a7a1b491422d0ab23fbabe793c33fe85519393adc3fa5432b009f6930a0420
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,495 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 29c | 1,208$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.7 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +7.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 62c | 925.13$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.35 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 11c | 827$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 71c | 346.75$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.19 | 62 | 72.6%45 W · 17 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…f407backed Yes | 8c | 308.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744e…3224backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed Yes | 16c | 299.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 71c | 271.3$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 78 | 74.4%58 W · 20 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 80c | 253.49$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 551 | 50.1%276 W · 275 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,507 | 48.1%725 W · 782 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 8c | 224.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 13c | 213$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 877 | 60.5%531 W · 346 L | +92.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 21c | 191.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 11c | 183.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 80c | 136.29$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 79c | 136.06$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 2,167 | 47.9%1,038 W · 1,129 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7776…3058backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 90.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 409 | 50.6%207 W · 202 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Yes | 17c | 83.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 18c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2,729 | 35.8%978 W · 1,751 L | -13.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 21c | 54.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 283 | 49.1%139 W · 144 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 79c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea2…8ea7backed No | 69c | 49.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 79c | 35.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 1,144 | 50.7%580 W · 564 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…fd21backed No | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 70c | 18.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…70d7backed No | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ef…556fbacked No | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386f…4913backed No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-03-08?this page
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Gil Vicente FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-03-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.