TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this week?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,250

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,554 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b11…38e8backed Yes8c1,334$109 inLost-$109.4950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes7c1,087$75 inLost-$75.345518.2%10 W · 45 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes3c990.34$29 inLost-$28.919434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c506$19 inLost-$19.122686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f055backed Yes13c351.65$44 inLost-$44714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes6c201.16$13 inLost-$13.0648236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa284…fbbabacked Yes16c154.65$25 inLost-$25520%0 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed No18c130.78$24 inWon+$107.283531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes12c106$13 inLost-$12.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.