Europa Conference League · resolved market
IFK Göteborg vs. KAA Gent: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20c6ded97a69167b27b700dc0d3e07097b63ee662c44013f83fc98c99e70ddbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 33c | 4,791$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.52 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 3,281$2,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.76 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 606.43$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.57 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Over | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 376.67$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.27 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 38c | 364.22$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.35 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 51c | 212.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 71c | 189.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 12c | 153.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf121…6903backed Over | 22c | 152.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 71c | 122.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 70c | 100.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 98.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 41c | 89.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47a2…a335backed Under | 49c | 88.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 50c | 78.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 50c | 74.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 41c | 72.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 68c | 71.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 69c | 61.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…55f7backed Over | 52c | 57.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 63c | 47.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +12.6wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 77c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 31c | 39.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 39c | 37.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 51c | 36.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 55c | 36.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 70c | 33.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…53c9backed Under | 49c | 30.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +5.7wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 61c | 29.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Over | 50c | 29.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 42 | 78.6%33 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 48c | 23.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 66c | 15.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 88 | 69.3%61 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Under | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 68cpaid | +39%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- IFK Göteborg vs. KAA Gent: O/U 2.5this page
- IFK Göteborg vs. KAA Gent: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- IFK Göteborg vs. KAA Gent: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- IFK Göteborg vs. KAA Gent: O/U 0.5Over won
- IFK Göteborg vs. KAA Gent: O/U 1.5Under won
- IFK Göteborg vs. KAA Gent: O/U 3.5Under won
- IFK Göteborg vs. KAA Gent: O/U 4.5Under won
- IFK Göteborg vs. KAA Gent: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: IFK Göteborg (-1.5)KAA Gent won
- Spread: KAA Gent (-1.5)IFK Göteborg won
- Spread: KAA Gent (-2.5)IFK Göteborg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.