College Football · resolved market
Will Baylor beat BYU?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20d3e6d730dee56569130a6f335f1e14766f72374a1e77cdde6318988ab9b944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BYUof Baylor, BYU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Baylor | 18c | 10,955$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.9 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked BYU | 74c | 3,647$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.19 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Baylor | 58c | 1,762$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.38 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ce…ab3abacked BYU | 42c | 1,192$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…a883backed BYU | 42c | 335.1$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.36 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Baylor | 30c | 288$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked BYU | 47c | 211.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.32 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Baylor | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed BYU | 43c | 162.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked BYU | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…0eb0backed BYU | 43c | 118.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Baylor | 61c | 103.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x950c…b570backed Baylor | 61c | 79.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Baylor | 32c | 70.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55e…3aecbacked Baylor | 27c | 54.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9c…2c98backed BYU | 41c | 50.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Baylor | 58c | 50.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed BYU | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Baylor | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed BYU | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcb…a83bbacked BYU | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…66a9backed BYU | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed BYU | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51b…d02bbacked BYU | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Baylor beat BYU?this page
- Will Baylor beat BYU by 4 or more points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.