Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or higher on February 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20dec9ec9c28950d21fe4c01ea38a1d68f9f050e99a96c4fbbd001cb4d17b22e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 1c | 2,307$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,157$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 22c | 999.99$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 11c | 799.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 74c | 615.8$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.71 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 3c | 562.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 15c | 337.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 5c | 323.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 7c | 287.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…cbc7backed Yes | 6c | 284.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 78c | 258.76$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 253.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…5f3fbacked Yes | 5c | 231.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 27c | 229.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed No | 77c | 220$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 168.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4115…6af1backed Yes | 8c | 167.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5621…c8a4backed Yes | 10c | 161.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 147.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed No | 76c | 130.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 15c | 127.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…a2cebacked Yes | 15c | 119.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 75c | 109.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 108$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae9…9988backed Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 12c | 97.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 23c | 74.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked No | 76c | 65.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 26c | 60.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…57c7backed No | 73c | 53.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…26efbacked No | 78c | 51.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 52c | 50.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…90b7backed Yes | 41c | 49.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked Yes | 22c | 48.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 52c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked No | 80c | 38.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…fe5fbacked Yes | 37c | 28.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 69c | 21.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…f57ebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or higher on February 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.