Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20e8200dbd6f07c3fac582538333c6f9c18d0e15dcddbc14d482ed16e650e6a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,488 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 1,996$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.22 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 1,700$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.36 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked L1ga Team | 66c | 1,684$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.8 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed L1ga Team | 53c | 1,670$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.7 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked L1ga Team | 68c | 1,308$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.32 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed L1ga Team | 59c | 774.2$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.87 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Pipsqueak+4 | 43c | 700$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 46c | 699.98$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.99 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c18…9b0ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 590.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team | 67c | 568.53$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.97 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked L1ga Team | 57c | 518.78$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.96 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 487.16$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.97 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed L1ga Team | 57c | 468.94$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.64 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed L1ga Team | 53c | 435$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 401.79$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.84 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed L1ga Team | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 380$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.6 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked L1ga Team | 51c | 375.71$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.1 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 372.84$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…b680backed L1ga Team | 53c | 360$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked L1ga Team | 60c | 331$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.67 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed L1ga Team | 60c | 330$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 309.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed L1ga Team | 54c | 275.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.23 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…72a8backed L1ga Team | 57c | 270$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 41c | 251.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked L1ga Team | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.59 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed L1ga Team | 53c | 237.6$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…600ebacked L1ga Team | 55c | 206$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 199.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 130 | 26.2%34 W · 96 L | -15.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed L1ga Team | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed L1ga Team | 55c | 182.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…97b6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 177.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 172.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked L1ga Team | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed L1ga Team | 54c | 156.65$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a3…746ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 142.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 44c | 140$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…c3a0backed L1ga Team | 60c | 119$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 103.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…4182backed L1ga Team | 54c | 103.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Pipsqueak+4 | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked L1ga Team | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked L1ga Team | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…05cebacked L1ga Team | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed L1ga Team | 53c | 91.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked L1ga Team | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed L1ga Team | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed L1ga Team | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…4596backed L1ga Team | 52c | 56.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…6596backed L1ga Team | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed L1ga Team | 53c | 49.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…c922backed Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 49.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -7.4wins | -0.34per pick | 43cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed L1ga Team | 53c | 46.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 167 | 52.7%88 W · 79 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 43.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -9.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked L1ga Team | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked L1ga Team | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb507…0910backed L1ga Team | 60c | 37.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked L1ga Team | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…db37backed L1ga Team | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked L1ga Team | 69c | 31.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked L1ga Team | 51c | 29.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…d51cbacked L1ga Team | 73c | 29.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed L1ga Team | 75c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked L1ga Team | 72c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…5238backed L1ga Team | 72c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked L1ga Team | 51c | 21.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed L1ga Team | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed L1ga Team | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed L1ga Team | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed L1ga Team | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf010…3218backed L1ga Team | 54c | 19.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs Pipsqueak+4 (+1.5)L1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.