Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Rafael Jodar vs Luca Van Assche
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20f5a5004e236afc6c8448c01aea0dd49c04534291071c7e17686e62653155eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jodarof Jodar, Assche
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Assche | 45c | 712.77$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.59 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Jodar | 74c | 675.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.64 | 655 | 58.9%386 W · 269 L | -32.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Assche | 15c | 575.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3973…2b2abacked Jodar | 72c | 572.86$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Assche | 26c | 502.64$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.66 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Assche | 29c | 421.16$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.93 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Jodar | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jodar | 72c | 357$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Jodar | 70c | 295$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 781 | 52.8%412 W · 369 L | +21.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6f…f8ebbacked Jodar | 72c | 280.42$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Assche | 28c | 277.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Assche | 27c | 261.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Assche | 31c | 161.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Assche | 29c | 127.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jodar | 69c | 124.72$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55a0…6906backed Assche | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…2509backed Assche | 35c | 59.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Assche | 28c | 37.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Assche | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Jodar | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…8763backed Jodar | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Jodar | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.