College Football · resolved market
Liberty vs. Sam Houston State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21380c488df285b118f333851d35a66708d476a62c31c93fdda9f8a46a83ea6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sam Houston Stateof Liberty, Sam Houston State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Sam Houston State | 55c | 14,582$7,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,607.79 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Liberty | 3c | 5,056$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Liberty | 1c | 3,156$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Liberty | 58c | 2,151$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.81 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Liberty | 8c | 1,535$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Liberty | 29c | 1,310$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.63 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Sam Houston State | 54c | 1,184$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.77 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66db…7afbbacked Liberty | 2c | 1,053$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Liberty | 35c | 1,034$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sam Houston State | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Liberty | 35c | 631.43$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed Liberty | 43c | 437$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.64 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Liberty | 26c | 218.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Sam Houston State | 47c | 214.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Liberty | 53c | 213.21$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Liberty | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa586…86f5backed Liberty | 17c | 118.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19a…2f33backed Sam Houston State | 65c | 117.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af1…ef00backed Sam Houston State | 44c | 110.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Liberty | 53c | 109.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Liberty | 55c | 105.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8b…4f21backed Liberty | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Liberty | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Sam Houston State | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Sam Houston State | 45c | 98.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Sam Houston State | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Liberty | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Liberty | 55c | 34.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked Liberty | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.