Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x214768f468e1c20a44d0d64f704538db8d6455ca7c70de2d3e4d274d782e0132
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 13c | 7,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 197 | 29.4%58 W · 139 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 15c | 4,191$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.72 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 3,565$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.83 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…a5cbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,871$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,223$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 14c | 1,897$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.58 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cd…05f7backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 2c | 1,221$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…3c1dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,154$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 16c | 1,144$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a36…4121backed Yes | 16c | 999.11$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.86 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 3c | 946.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 263 | 19.8%52 W · 211 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…bc9fbacked Yes | 16c | 770.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 16c | 606.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…c397backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 14c | 478.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed Yes | 16c | 472.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…714bbacked Yes | 16c | 456.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 14c | 390.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 222 | 29.3%65 W · 157 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Yes | 16c | 387.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 16c | 300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 300 | 50.3%151 W · 149 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 16c | 300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…e6febacked Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 14c | 285$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…94b8backed Yes | 16c | 260$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Yes | 13c | 259.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…4396backed Yes | 13c | 246.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 322 | 22.4%72 W · 250 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab2…0ac3backed Yes | 16c | 185$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 15c | 166.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…5555backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…7aaabacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a37…5cf6backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 14c | 142.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 13c | 123.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…8dd8backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6de…12f7backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…5255backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…ed40backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…9c04backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3e…ef94backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 13c | 94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…93f7backed Yes | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Yes | 15c | 75.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 15c | 67.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…6696backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…eedcbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c95…80e4backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24?Yes won
- Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.