Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x214b8ff6089ecce604c8f27959ffcec9686bb4165e9e4c722880777eb7f50682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b7e…23ebbacked No | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.99 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 69cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…5fc9backed Yes | 52c | 2,328$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 45c | 1,240$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…9265backed Yes | 9c | 588.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.55 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2c…35eebacked No | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 55c | 400$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 21c | 354$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…e28dbacked Yes | 45c | 317.84$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked No | 56c | 158.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +9.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +28%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 140.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…4d50backed Yes | 49c | 91.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…ec11backed Yes | 49c | 81.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…d2dabacked Yes | 79c | 43.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc603…3220backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a5…b220backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in July?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $48 in July?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 in July?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $72 in July?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in July?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in July?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.