Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2168bc01f52017eefc6a2559a0a500abadde1a34e6650f501f9e4d4cb460036a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 10c | 462.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 37c | 226.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 201.22$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 126.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 115.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 106.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 103$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 48c | 98.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 90.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 80.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 73.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 54.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 56c | 54.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 61c | 51.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 60c | 51.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…15a4backed Yes | 45c | 51.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 58c | 50.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 48.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 36c | 44.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 33c | 36.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 56c | 35.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 77c | 35.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 30.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 29.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…4e54backed Yes | 44c | 27.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 26.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 67c | 24.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 23.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 49c | 22.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 65c | 21.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 18.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 56c | 18.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 61c | 18.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 17.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.