NHL · resolved market
AHL: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins vs. Belleville Senators
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x217d9a6b0e5f95a484b5d5d4c46f8ca4cba3bc57aac65f2e1c5b2900e660d2e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguinsof Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, Belleville Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,473 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Belleville Senators | 43c | 1,205$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.35 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 58c | 930.5$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.1 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.1 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 58c | 408.28$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.48 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Belleville Senators | 42c | 293.75$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.38 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 57c | 274.81$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Belleville Senators | 42c | 177$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Belleville Senators | 42c | 115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 57c | 90.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Belleville Senators | 44c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…a253backed Belleville Senators | 43c | 57.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Belleville Senators | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Belleville Senators | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 181 | 43.1%78 W · 103 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Belleville Senators | 42c | 38.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…d5f4backed Belleville Senators | 42c | 28.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 58c | 25.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.