Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Dayton Flyers (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2186d7c11ffa371c7d3fb17259944ed0c452fc1fae3c9a5d1b3c0a73a8ebb780
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dayton Flyersof Dayton Flyers, Loyola Chicago Ramblers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 49c | 2,259$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.07 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Dayton Flyers | 49c | 2,129$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.92 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 2,000$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.59 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 51c | 1,502$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.02 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Dayton Flyers | 53c | 792.45$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.45 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 52c | 726$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.22 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 51c | 489.61$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.59 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Dayton Flyers | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Dayton Flyers | 53c | 36.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 51c | 25.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-16.5)this page
- Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Dayton FlyersDayton Flyers won
- Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 141.5Under won
- Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 142.5Under won
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-17.5)Dayton Flyers won
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-18.5)Dayton Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.