Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Dayton Flyers (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89dba856a302b93174dca77b55db383f921c1ad52ca51e48bc96de303cac6b1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dayton Flyersof Dayton Flyers, Loyola Chicago Ramblers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 51c | 1,478$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.55 | 222 | 50.9%113 W · 109 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 53c | 412.77$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.71 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Dayton Flyers | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Dayton Flyers | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Dayton Flyers | 47c | 366$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.98 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Dayton Flyers | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Dayton Flyers | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 53c | 188$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 53c | 177$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 54c | 131$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Dayton Flyers | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1428…017cbacked Dayton Flyers | 49c | 122.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 55c | 121$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 54c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 54c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Dayton Flyers | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 52c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 54c | 47.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Dayton Flyers | 46c | 47.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Dayton Flyers | 47c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Dayton Flyers | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Dayton Flyers | 49c | 44.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Dayton Flyers | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Dayton Flyers | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 63c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Dayton Flyers | 47c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Dayton Flyers | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Dayton Flyers | 46c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Dayton Flyers | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Dayton Flyers | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Dayton Flyers | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Dayton Flyers | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Dayton Flyers | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Dayton Flyers | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Dayton Flyers | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Dayton Flyers | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Dayton Flyers | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Dayton Flyers | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Dayton Flyers | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-17.5)this page
- Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Dayton FlyersDayton Flyers won
- Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 141.5Under won
- Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 142.5Under won
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-16.5)Dayton Flyers won
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-18.5)Dayton Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.