Tennis · resolved market
ITF Sao Paulo: Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira vs Jose Pereira
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21dbad8ab7b53db75547bdd5bc9cef867a3f84af693c4d530d9d5b54b3980e9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jose Pereiraof Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira, Jose Pereira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Jose Pereira | 76c | 8,788$6,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.89 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 25c | 5,416$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.66 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 8c | 2,312$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.54 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 23c | 2,188$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.53 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 25c | 1,801$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.08 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 18c | 1,253$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.4 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Jose Pereira | 61c | 491.76$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.83 | 1,053 | 40.9%431 W · 622 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 34c | 423$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.82 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 32c | 410.15$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 223 | 37.7%84 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Jose Pereira | 65c | 230.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 32c | 230.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 1,842 | 41%755 W · 1,087 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 26c | 203.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Jose Pereira | 77c | 201.08$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 26c | 196.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 26c | 173.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 23c | 172.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 26c | 126.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…ac97backed Jose Pereira | 60c | 82.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 21c | 73.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 897 | 54.6%490 W · 407 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 26c | 55.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,009 | 38.3%386 W · 623 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 41c | 39.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 418 | 51.7%216 W · 202 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Jose Pereira | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,123 | 50.3%565 W · 558 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 38c | 34.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 429 | 51.3%220 W · 209 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira | 45c | 32.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 967 | 55%532 W · 435 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Jose Pereira | 75c | 29.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a11…9becbacked Jose Pereira | 69c | 28.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Jose Pereira | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Jose Pereira | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c8…190abacked Jose Pereira | 79c | 17.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.