Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2222dca86966eb069581983cb9a8fe186ff4fa9b79d6fbd95ad0f4bf58c03839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 1c | 4,999$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 48c | 803.8$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.33 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 708.37$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.34 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 50c | 616.02$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.04 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 404.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099d…8468backed No | 69c | 403.33$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 295.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 270.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 34c | 235.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 215.2$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 50c | 206.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 205.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 203.58$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 202.4$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 33c | 198.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 30c | 174.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 36c | 148.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 147.84$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 125.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 26c | 123.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 71c | 114.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 66c | 110.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 110.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 34c | 109.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe905…c709backed Yes | 20c | 107.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 101.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 23c | 96.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 94.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 34c | 83.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 47c | 82.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 74.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 14c | 72.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 55c | 68.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 51c | 67.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 44c | 66.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed No | 54c | 64.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 30c | 64.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 35c | 64.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 54c | 62.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 58.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 55c | 53.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 50.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 66c | 49.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 76c | 48.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 47.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 33c | 44.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 44c | 43.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 39c | 42.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…73a4backed Yes | 34c | 40.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 74c | 39.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 48c | 39.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 31c | 37.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 56c | 36.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 35.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 62c | 34.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 76c | 33.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 63c | 32.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 36c | 32.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 30.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 38c | 29.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 35c | 29.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 53c | 28.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 53c | 28.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 39c | 25.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked No | 79c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 72c | 22.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 65c | 21.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 20.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 20.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed No | 59c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…0dcdbacked No | 53c | 19.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…b344backed No | 53c | 19.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…70e1backed No | 64c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed No | 66c | 18.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 17.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.