TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,737
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,737 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0b87…9414backed No1c4,986$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.862,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No5c578.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9447442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes56c465.58$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.194136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes53c417.47$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.8621436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No18c320.14$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4971823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c315.55$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.186,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes39c263.06$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.128,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes61c249.87$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5333058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No51c225.86$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.991,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes58c211$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.328339.8%33 W · 50 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes66c205.74$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1743238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes55c193.98$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.914632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5889…1927backed Yes58c155.94$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.22683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed No67c145.82$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6517156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c137.8$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No44c135.62$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.284,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aea…2ab8backed No44c115.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.245431.5%17 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-43.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes50c109.96$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.981,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No47c85.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0424149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes43c81.85$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9907…ca66backed Yes48c80.6$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.583046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed Yes62c79.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.358861.4%54 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked No53c77.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1824066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No69c74.48$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1729558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes36c73.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.111,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes42c72.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.411,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes51c68.06$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4435133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No72c68.03$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8833450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No60c63.67$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.991,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c62.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed No57c60.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2515954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked No21c60.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7126828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes56c59.73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.554,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No66c59.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4454966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes34c58.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0713930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c28…73a4backed No51c54.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.921681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c53.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.643,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc25d…67b3backed Yes59c51.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7711161.3%68 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0299…8739backed No53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No45c49.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.119259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes59c48.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.997631.6%24 W · 52 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef62…2cfebacked Yes44c44.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.985337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…c61bbacked No48c41.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.995655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No73c40.19$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3412567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes32c40.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.283,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd07a…4ccdbacked No45c37.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…4d6dbacked No54c36.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52065%13 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ef5…0366backed Yes47c33.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.772339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dad…f0dcbacked No49c33.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.251838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes47c32.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0565043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No40c32.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8715339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadbe…6cecbacked Yes52c31.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.221662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes46c31.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8742438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No40c30.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1532157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a4c…1116backed No59c30.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.898851.1%45 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff29…f008backed No40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211950.4%60 W · 59 L+13.9wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No45c28.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9289951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed93…037cbacked Yes41c28.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes38c28.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.478432.1%27 W · 57 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8205…66bdbacked No53c27.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes40c27.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.636819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes44c26.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.843132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe45…fd22backed No44c25.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.214955.1%27 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed No49c25.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.310444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x620b…fca3backed Yes44c25.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.072347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes57c25.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8155942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x883f…0634backed Yes62c24.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.447536%27 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed No55c24.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5220150.7%102 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x288a…19f4backed No48c24.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.554946.9%23 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes49c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2433139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61a0…0ae9backed Yes61c23.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.351931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa019…7935backed No55c22.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.625375.5%40 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No61c22.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8226458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked No54c21.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8544147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a99…1838backed No59c21.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.599770.1%68 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick75cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5374…d802backed No58c20.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.723125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfca1…c1bebacked Yes57c19.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.393661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No64c17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.881,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.