Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue less than 100 executive orders in first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22417fc06ed67e2a702263979cf7c9181d69454801bd3fc6f34a6071c37cd6af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 10c | 3,284$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.42 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fec…4cafbacked No | 1c | 2,288$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 14c | 1,093$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.43 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 56c | 1,086$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 42c | 641$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.47 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 63c | 555$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.65 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…abc0backed No | 7c | 442.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 32c | 316.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb3…34c1backed No | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 22c | 285.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 33c | 255$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 59c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 12c | 140.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked Yes | 77c | 111.68$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 29c | 87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked Yes | 73c | 56.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 56c | 46.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…dc71backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d69…d6f1backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump issue less than 100 executive orders in first week?this page
- Will Trump issue 100-149 executive orders in first week?No won
- Will Trump issue 150-199 executive orders in first week?No won
- Will Trump issue 200 or more executive orders in first week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.