College Football · resolved market
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22460bf6cc664963ea200429e0bf2873102a9a993b6e2fb0141c94c1c2c8a880
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 54c | 10,556$5,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,653.59 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 8,090$3,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,361.26 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 62c | 1,700$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…007bbacked Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Over | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 46c | 243.39$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.43 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 46c | 137.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…6c7cbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ohio State vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 40.5this page
- Ohio State vs. Wisconsin BadgersOhio State won
- Spread: Ohio State (-25.5)Ohio State won
- Spread: Ohio State (-27.5)Ohio State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.