Other European Leagues · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Vitória SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x224637127e3e86817b14584f20d2b3e6e64420450ac4957c6427aa9ab8fb747e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,349 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 1,918$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.25 | 7,966 | 45.3%3,608 W · 4,358 L | +9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 25c | 1,250$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.54 | 124 | 26.6%33 W · 91 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 12c | 806.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 17.6%25 W · 117 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…8219backed Over | 22c | 758.3$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 9c | 539.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 5,677 | 42%2,382 W · 3,295 L | +74.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bd…c016backed Under | 77c | 536.7$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec97…1cfabacked Over | 22c | 493.57$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db7…4288backed Under | 78c | 493.57$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…5439backed Under | 75c | 427.73$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabab…58d2backed Over | 25c | 427.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…cd92backed Under | 73c | 280$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 250$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1,507 | 48.1%725 W · 782 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Over | 25c | 242$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 75c | 225$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 202 | 55%111 W · 91 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…841fbacked Under | 79c | 221.6$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 23c | 99.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1,111 | 47.9%532 W · 579 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 74c | 35.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 77c | 31.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Under | 77c | 29.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 76 | 69.7%53 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Vitória SC: O/U 4.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Vitória SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Vitória SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Vitória SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Vitória SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.