NHL · resolved market
KHL: Spartak Moscow vs. Barys Astana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2249b1c866a7fb38ae14cb4a27203cc9beb7badc70533daa0f61a879b8276c20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spartak Moscowof Spartak Moscow, Barys Astana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Spartak Moscow | 74c | 1,400$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.99 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Barys Astana | 26c | 1,024$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.39 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Spartak Moscow | 76c | 393.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.16 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Barys Astana | 26c | 269.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Barys Astana | 26c | 260$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Spartak Moscow | 73c | 243.87$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Barys Astana | 30c | 178.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…ac47backed Barys Astana | 26c | 156.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Barys Astana | 24c | 124.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Barys Astana | 24c | 92.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Barys Astana | 25c | 79.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c1…0df7backed Barys Astana | 25c | 63.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Spartak Moscow | 69c | 41.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Spartak Moscow | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Barys Astana | 38c | 26.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…5638backed Spartak Moscow | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 91 | 68.1%62 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.