Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x225e2a48ad6bba2be006ac326ac0163e205e238302930f6f50e5b100d7b0a85c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 521.3$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.29 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 51c | 433.35$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.33 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 11c | 392$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 73c | 180.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.69 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 32c | 176.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.71 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 162.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 159.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 70c | 153.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 11c | 143.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 30c | 129.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 69c | 121.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 70c | 118.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 113.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 66c | 100.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed Yes | 67c | 87.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 79.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 73.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 42c | 71.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 74c | 70.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd4…888cbacked Yes | 31c | 63.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 37c | 57.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…665fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 32c | 57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 30c | 45.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed Yes | 36c | 42.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 66c | 39.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 58c | 39.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 36c | 36.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 39c | 33.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ab…d485backed No | 34c | 32.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 50cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…c16ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ab…c17ebacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4303…a198backed No | 66c | 28.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 36c | 28.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 27.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 23.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…a33bbacked No | 61c | 22.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 55c | 22.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 22.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 61c | 19.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 19.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 73c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…fac1backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.