Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Wawrinka (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x225eced2e65e8d1ff552c7a043e1cff58da85e8b701aa742d83a6061b5f8d477
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wawrinkaof Fritz, Wawrinka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Fritz | 51c | 4,178$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.02 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Wawrinka | 49c | 4,092$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.12 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Fritz | 57c | 2,091$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 447 | 54.4%243 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wawrinka | 43c | 1,444$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.96 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…afcbbacked Wawrinka | 44c | 630$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.8 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fritz | 52c | 515.78$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.38 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Fritz | 56c | 453.8$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.69 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…df76backed Wawrinka | 50c | 438.16$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.08 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…e741backed Wawrinka | 48c | 361.29$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.29 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Fritz | 57c | 351.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…0002backed Fritz | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Fritz | 56c | 254$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.24 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Wawrinka | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…a462backed Wawrinka | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1895…efd2backed Wawrinka | 51c | 195.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…52b5backed Wawrinka | 59c | 169.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Fritz | 55c | 128$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Wawrinka | 49c | 86.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…6124backed Fritz | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Fritz | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Fritz | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Wawrinka | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Fritz | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Fritz | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Wawrinka | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Wawrinka | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +58%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Wawrinka | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bbe8backed Wawrinka | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Wawrinka | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Wawrinka | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Wawrinka | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Wawrinka | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Wawrinka (+2.5)this page
- Australian Open Men's: Stan Wawrinka vs Taylor FritzFritz won
- Set 1 Winner: Wawrinka vs FritzFritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Wawrinka (+1.5)Fritz won
- Wawrinka vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Wawrinka vs. Fritz: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.