Tennis · resolved market
Wawrinka vs. Fritz: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb212111c27f800c1c4b007f7783326e91575e2c612adcc89c859cd017a7100ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8061…9eb5backed Over 3.5 | 45c | 999.05$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under 3.5 | 54c | 655.22$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.82 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 3.5 | 50c | 606.17$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.17 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over 3.5 | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 53c | 583.73$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.71 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Over 3.5 | 47c | 510.64$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.64 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Under 3.5 | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Under 3.5 | 56c | 141.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Over 3.5 | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 345 | 38%131 W · 214 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked Over 3.5 | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 284 | 62.3%177 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…9d1ebacked Over 3.5 | 45c | 44.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under 3.5 | 56c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Over 3.5 | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Over 3.5 | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Over 3.5 | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Over 3.5 | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over 3.5 | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Over 3.5 | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over 3.5 | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…b72fbacked Over 3.5 | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked Over 3.5 | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…6154backed Under 3.5 | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wawrinka vs. Fritz: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Australian Open Men's: Stan Wawrinka vs Taylor FritzFritz won
- Set 1 Winner: Wawrinka vs FritzFritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Wawrinka (+1.5)Fritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Wawrinka (+2.5)Wawrinka won
- Wawrinka vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.