Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x227e7ed1b09f7839fe130ca125321016111161c18d9f705aa6f2a8fa643c0609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 24c | 2,910$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.88 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Up | 11c | 2,300$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.18 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Up | 1c | 1,240$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Up | 19c | 1,215$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.85 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Up | 14c | 850.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Up | 1c | 790$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca76…2e0cbacked Up | 2c | 699.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Up | 6c | 633$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…7afebacked Down | 65c | 607.67$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 31c | 600$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 28c | 575$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.56 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…4cc7backed Down | 74c | 549.19$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.32 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…bf0ebacked Up | 48c | 409.74$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Down | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Down | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…f384backed Up | 49c | 218$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Up | 41c | 211.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Down | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…b2adbacked Down | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 24c | 172.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Up | 40c | 125.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…b61ebacked Up | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Up | 18c | 100.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Down | 57c | 96.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…a7eebacked Up | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4804…3f54backed Up | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 44c | 39.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…aec5backed Up | 41c | 34.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.