Movies · resolved market
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 20, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2284a60f342ef8825c7b862f3215edae2e0730e83954d2aa17808c2c79b094d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 11c | 8,559$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.61 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a0…2ab3backed Yes | 15c | 3,930$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 11c | 2,762$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.75 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 11c | 882.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d6…8ff9backed Yes | 7c | 871$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 12c | 851$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c6…5791backed Yes | 10c | 847$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 628.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911d…9886backed Yes | 7c | 565.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3d…afd9backed Yes | 7c | 559.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445d…0643backed Yes | 10c | 320.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 11c | 232.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…6563backed Yes | 7c | 219$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…85a5backed Yes | 10c | 159.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 10c | 155$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…b101backed Yes | 14c | 134.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340a…02a4backed Yes | 13c | 126.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 15c | 124.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 10c | 114.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 15c | 105.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 15c | 73.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 20, 2026)this page
- Will "The Rip" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 20, 2026)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.