MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22c22f764d64dc59b36443160008cfa0082ee99ad12287d47ae1e565519452ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 1,069$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.15 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f1…31a0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 961.6$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 959.28$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.68 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 941.06$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.78 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 429.78$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.4 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 120.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 111.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 96.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 87.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 508 | 60.2%306 W · 202 L | +29.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 82.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 68.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 65.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 63.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd05…61d6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 51.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 46.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 41.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 41.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 33.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 33.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 33.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…46e4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 33.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…b570backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 33.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 33.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 32.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 29.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 27.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 25.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…c116backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 22.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543d…b27abacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington NationalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.