MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71154587dc07a865fe85e8e4df8795d67996df8bfa8a91227cb19dd7320807ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 1,201$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.04 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ee…a073backed Under | 67c | 641.2$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 587.96$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 38c | 433.04$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.44 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Under | 62c | 400.65$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 374.43$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.89 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 43c | 355.88$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.88 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Under | 40c | 205.25$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 35c | 165$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 146.58$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 137.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 47c | 110.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 38c | 106.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 39c | 97.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 61c | 76.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4007backed Over | 43c | 66.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 52.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 39c | 38.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…c116backed Under | 54c | 37.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 24.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked Over | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 58c | 20.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 60c | 19.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 58c | 17.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 62c | 17.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 687 | 69.6%478 W · 209 L | +60.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington NationalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.