TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,806
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$198,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,806 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc807…c12bbacked Under54c150,000$81,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,999.8850153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbcd…7ab2backed Over46c69,073$31,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,299.25728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over46c46,671$21,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,202.326943.5%30 W · 39 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over46c16,584$7,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,955.5292054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Over48c15,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,80015148.3%73 W · 78 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Over46c7,915$3,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,274.313852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under52c7,284$3,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,787.6827254.4%148 W · 124 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over46c4,935$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,664.7712551.2%64 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Under54c4,502$2,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,430.9916947.9%81 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44b6…672abacked Under51c4,453$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,271.193935.9%14 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over48c3,994$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,082.7765050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Under52c3,885$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020.124651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Over46c3,660$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.2536649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over48c2,173$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.571,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under54c2,092$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.6875049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ac…61e8backed Under52c1,942$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.052263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under53c1,833$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.967849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c1,794$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.841,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over49c1,105$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.055,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Over49c1,100$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+64.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Under51c1,020$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.917852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over58c719.2$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.712,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd63…cf21backed Under54c710.59$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.724656.5%26 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under52c608.57$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.4632348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under36c505.75$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.3212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6726…542fbacked Over49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2556762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over49c499.98$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.997339.7%29 W · 44 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Over51c453.34$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.2321847.7%104 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under54c399.95$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.976,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Over47c309.6$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.3818239.6%72 W · 110 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac4…a601backed Over50c291$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.55341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over71c281.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8913256.1%74 W · 58 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7cd…e98dbacked Over63c230.91$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.393040%12 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x724c…1521backed Over46c210.35$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.591855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x186e…3ba3backed Over74c198.82$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7cb…bc54backed Over50c194$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9714953%79 W · 70 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Over49c184$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8447350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Under53c145.77$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2677050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over45c134.05$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7356851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed Under50c127.13$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.571553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over49c125$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.752,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b71…80ecbacked Under48c111.01$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.284148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62db…d58ebacked Over46c106.33$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.422733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Over48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5213560%81 W · 54 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Over46c96.76$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2522851.3%117 W · 111 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e9…8dbebacked Over46c96.76$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.259349.5%46 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Under48c96.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3984049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under29c90.59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.466749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacce…f4e8backed Under55c88.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.651346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb743…c116backed Over77c77.25$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.094864.6%31 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over50c75.92$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under54c71.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5133547.5%159 W · 176 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over55c67.59$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.221,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under25c65.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.591,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52cb…4007backed Over51c56.59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.734740.4%19 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under55c53.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1979543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b81…68bebacked Over46c52.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.11450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb9a…4d42backed Over46c52.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.112470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+23.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Under48c51.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5341051.7%212 W · 198 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Over49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.518649.5%92 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Over49c49.46$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.221,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Over49c48.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7216553.3%88 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4cb…a917backed Under55c44.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3320751.2%106 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…0b9cbacked Under55c44.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.33933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over46c44.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7748339.8%192 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33fc…dc88backed Under55c41.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6822457.1%128 W · 96 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Over50c38.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.419248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a66…a5d7backed Under51c38.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4120950.2%105 W · 104 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under48c35.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.267453%357 W · 317 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e1…f5a9backed Under55c35.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.462759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Under55c34.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.225256.7%143 W · 109 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Over77c34.33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9822154.3%120 W · 101 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under48c32.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d0…a2a2backed Over46c31.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.032050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe748…bc49backed Over48c29.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.26946.4%32 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x654f…61eebacked Over46c29.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.67560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99c9…3ecdbacked Over50c28.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.142100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+141.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x684d…e35bbacked Under55c28.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.43837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc547…bdaabacked Under55c26.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x648d…0ebdbacked Over46c25.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6312864.1%82 W · 46 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad78…678cbacked Over77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.753100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd6f…bad3backed Under54c22.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.163537.1%13 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over52c21.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.261,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b5c…4568backed Over54c19.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under52c19.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.186653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over68c14.82$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.82,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.