Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 July 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22c95d3bcc3ba70b945be02561d18fb8d131dc1f6b708e2c3a828f260079e0c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 5c | 13,384$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.72 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…dfb8backed Yes | 8c | 11,143$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…8d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 6,027$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.16 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3521…b046backed Yes | 3c | 4,388$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.18 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 2,102$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…d144backed Yes | 3c | 1,614$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,552$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe774…6457backed Yes | 6c | 1,204$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes | 14c | 731.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 543.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 458.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 6c | 410.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 6c | 365.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 July 13-19?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 July 13-19?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 July 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.