Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56825ecf0901ea11e6c20ef89351ea9ca933e7fc390b3f6e1316fbbc6cee01f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2723…8d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 28,645$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.2 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 5c | 10,052$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.21 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,453$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 62c | 4,500$2,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.28 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb36…a357backed Yes | 27c | 3,511$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,384$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,229$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…ccf4backed Yes | 2c | 2,057$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6259…c692backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 1,687$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c6b4backed Yes | 24c | 1,256$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…d144backed Yes | 48c | 1,167$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.68 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Yes | 18c | 1,133$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d03…3a52backed Yes | 1c | 1,080$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 11cpaid | +238.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…270cbacked Yes | 5c | 999.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +262.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 669.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bad…4ee8backed Yes | 3c | 623.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d40…335ebacked Yes | 28c | 466$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 38c | 410$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 13c | 356.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…1c34backed Yes | 3c | 307.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 75c | 300$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 6c | 253.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc85…c8c3backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked No | 77c | 120.52$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819d…0341backed Yes | 18c | 114.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…a742backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…1f1fbacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…b075backed No | 76c | 79.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed No | 57c | 78.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed No | 51c | 58.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…0993backed Yes | 24c | 50.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc095…c1c5backed No | 51c | 49.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed No | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…52c4backed Yes | 50c | 39.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +842%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58bf…2ef8backed Yes | 47c | 31.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…c05dbacked No | 67c | 28.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…5757backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 July 13-19?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 July 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.