MLB · resolved market
KC Royals vs. MIL Brewers April 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22fbf96226887e4c9312e748dd90e57a3dd2462e1b43f3ee0a0af0786869cb61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brewersof Royals, Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Brewers | 52c | 2,431$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.76 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Royals | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.16 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Royals | 48c | 468.06$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.05 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Royals | 46c | 307$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Brewers | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 48c | 246.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.49 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Royals | 48c | 215.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce7…fd4abacked Royals | 47c | 201.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Royals | 48c | 176.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Royals | 33c | 164.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Royals | 18c | 115.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…cb1cbacked Royals | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Royals | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9584…380bbacked Royals | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Brewers | 54c | 27.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dad…709abacked Brewers | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- KC Royals vs. MIL Brewers April 1this page
- ARI Diamondbacks vs. NYY Yankees April 1Diamondbacks won
- ATL Braves vs. LAD Dodgers April 1Dodgers won
- CHC Cubs vs. OAK Athletics April 1Cubs won
- CLE Guardians vs. SD Padres April 1Padres won
- DET Tigers vs. SEA Mariners April 1Tigers won
- LAA Angels vs. STL Cardinals April 1Angels won
- MIN Twins vs. CWS White Sox April 1Twins won
- NYM Mets vs. MIA Marlins April 1Marlins won
- PIT Pirates vs. TB Rays April 1Rays won
- SF Giants vs. HOU Astros April 1Giants won
- TEX Rangers vs. CIN Reds April 1Rangers won
- WAS Nationals vs. TOR Blue Jays April 1Blue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.