MLB · resolved market
CLE Guardians vs. SD Padres April 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82dee53caadc6d0b41060dbcfb6cc8830e37f5a01a13dafcb88a4be0e69a7498
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Padresof Guardians, Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Guardians | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Guardians | 36c | 796.04$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians | 37c | 648.14$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.81 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Padres | 66c | 500$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce7…fd4abacked Padres | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Padres | 60c | 390.94$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.38 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians | 37c | 324.15$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Padres | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Padres | 62c | 300$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Padres | 62c | 278$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.64 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Guardians | 38c | 264.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Padres | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Padres | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Padres | 60c | 95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Guardians | 38c | 85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres | 62c | 80.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Padres | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Padres | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Padres | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Padres | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a10…556cbacked Padres | 63c | 18.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CLE Guardians vs. SD Padres April 1this page
- ARI Diamondbacks vs. NYY Yankees April 1Diamondbacks won
- ATL Braves vs. LAD Dodgers April 1Dodgers won
- CHC Cubs vs. OAK Athletics April 1Cubs won
- DET Tigers vs. SEA Mariners April 1Tigers won
- KC Royals vs. MIL Brewers April 1Brewers won
- LAA Angels vs. STL Cardinals April 1Angels won
- MIN Twins vs. CWS White Sox April 1Twins won
- NYM Mets vs. MIA Marlins April 1Marlins won
- PIT Pirates vs. TB Rays April 1Rays won
- SF Giants vs. HOU Astros April 1Giants won
- TEX Rangers vs. CIN Reds April 1Rangers won
- WAS Nationals vs. TOR Blue Jays April 1Blue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.