Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Brann win on 2025-09-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x230bcd9e6a1127b5a955d84dbe24c95ef270fa7fbdd727dcc477c923b0afcdec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 15c | 90,994$13,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,548.69 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 12c | 14,051$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.75 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 16c | 6,500$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 18c | 5,205$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.9 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…e3c0backed Yes | 15c | 3,775$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 14c | 3,550$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 16c | 3,123$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…de60backed Yes | 14c | 1,878$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 18c | 1,618$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.47 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,254$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.12 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 12c | 762.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…4a7abacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 14c | 457.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 13c | 417.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 15c | 334.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569d…ede8backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 16c | 285.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07f…8a62backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 15c | 199$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 16c | 167.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 9c | 166.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x70c0…940dbacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 19c | 134.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 13c | 112.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 19c | 105.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…a193backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…5721backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 15c | 99.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 65 | 13.8%9 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…5840backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc47…15d4backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brann win on 2025-09-25?this page
- Will Lille vs. Brann end in a draw?No won
- Will Lille win on 2025-09-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.