Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-04-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x230e323b9eb3386e8ea0aa320247a8c74489b334ab7a9373700b82984e7ad2ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 2c | 15,127$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.61 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Yes | 5c | 9,957$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.87 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed Yes | 6c | 9,913$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.78 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 5c | 8,944$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.34 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes | 7c | 6,998$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.02 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 7c | 5,542$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.76 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Yes | 6c | 5,316$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 0c | 3,541$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 192 | 65.1%125 W · 67 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 5c | 2,744$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…acdebacked Yes | 7c | 2,698$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,975$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191c…f0b4backed Yes | 5c | 1,849$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66b…1220backed Yes | 4c | 1,553$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 1c | 1,288$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -93.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…f407backed Yes | 7c | 1,028$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Yes | 5c | 980.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 5c | 968.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2273…7e01backed Yes | 2c | 949.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Yes | 5c | 943$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 90 | 30%27 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…39e7backed Yes | 6c | 799.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5424…b09bbacked Yes | 6c | 792.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Yes | 6c | 786.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 6c | 582.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +70%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 5c | 528.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…c7d9backed Yes | 5c | 471.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Yes | 6c | 440.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 7c | 427.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 7c | 427.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 6c | 414.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Yes | 5c | 339.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…4a86backed Yes | 5c | 339.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…30debacked Yes | 6c | 322.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 305.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…bff8backed Yes | 6c | 298.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…d098backed Yes | 5c | 282.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed Yes | 7c | 269.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 6c | 235.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 100 | 28%28 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…9182backed Yes | 6c | 201.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…2a61backed Yes | 6c | 200.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-04-06?this page
- Will Casa Pia AC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.