Tennis · resolved market
Ben Shelton vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x231f49628e243796630d211b7f7d5f0e0805f2f73276c861e4a5f38a8a042e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,706 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66f0…923bbacked Under 2.5 | 5c | 2,459$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +271.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef0…f14cbacked Under 2.5 | 5c | 2,300$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…593ebacked Under 2.5 | 24c | 700$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +7.9wins | +0.33per pick | 25cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over 2.5 | 50c | 651.76$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.07 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc252…33e3backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 545$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Under 2.5 | 65c | 308.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Over 2.5 | 51c | 298.67$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.67 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 49c | 281.41$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.23 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 247.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Under 2.5 | 33c | 99.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Over 2.5 | 49c | 82.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x319e…de42backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ben Shelton vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner TienLearner Tien won
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs TienTien won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)Tien won
- Shelton vs. Tien: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Shelton vs. Tien: Match O/U 23.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.