Tennis · resolved market
Shelton vs. Tien: Match O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x945a65b169073fb4e01970b2bf2fab477c6cdcc68687d7038577eee6b84b78a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,531 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 53c | 4,000$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.99 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef0…f14cbacked Under | 4c | 2,100$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 1,566$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.66 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Over | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Under | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 119 | 19.3%23 W · 96 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…fa5ebacked Under | 25c | 1,000$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +18.4wins | +0.29per pick | 27cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35d9…d520backed Under | 25c | 1,000$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…8205backed Under | 24c | 700$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +7.4wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 593$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.64 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Over | 51c | 392.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 365$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 49c | 252.89$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 250.54$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…c148backed Under | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 85.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Over | 54c | 62.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…4eacbacked Under | 49c | 60.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed Under | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…7560backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 58.9%99 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa684…ca71backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 49c | 29.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 27.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 22.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shelton vs. Tien: Match O/U 23.5this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner TienLearner Tien won
- Ben Shelton vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs TienTien won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)Tien won
- Shelton vs. Tien: Match O/U 22.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.