Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Tien
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bfd6c3bf3ccadcc7f8af5df1c1d800d5d2d3685d2b75ee6faa2273053c5e39d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Shelton, Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,120 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Tien | 80c | 757.24$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.62 | 119 | 19.3%23 W · 96 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Shelton | 50c | 727.98$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.24 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Tien | 49c | 202.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.74 | 945 | 49.6%469 W · 476 L | -23.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked Tien | 50c | 199.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…73e7backed Shelton | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Shelton | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Shelton | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Shelton | 50c | 59.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac18…6f88backed Shelton | 56c | 43.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…a463backed Tien | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Tien | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…94bfbacked Shelton | 57c | 18.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Tienthis page
- BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner TienLearner Tien won
- Ben Shelton vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)Tien won
- Shelton vs. Tien: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Shelton vs. Tien: Match O/U 23.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.